DATA MONITOR SEPTEMBER 2025: Make Europe Regress Again? Anti-Democratic Parties Copy US Climate Denial

The latest U.S. election marked a seismic shift with global consequences. On climate policy, the new administration has signaled its stance through two key moves. First, in a UN General Assembly speech, it rejected the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change and criticized Europe’s pursuit of lower emissions as economically damaging. Meanwhile, a recent executive order has raised concerns  about limiting the ability of not-for-profit institutions to scrutinise government actions  that try to hold the administration accountable across a range of policy areas, including fighting climate change. 

In our monitoring at CAAD we have noted similar developments in Europe. Political currents in the United States – visible even before recent electoral shifts – appear to have emboldened some in Europe to adopt similar anti-science positions on climate change and undermine or attack organisations that resist their push for sweeping, unscientific policy changes. The data supporting these observations is presented below.

We have documented some of this below, focusing on a cross-section of European countries. The data points to coordinated a top-down effort, backed by powerful financial networks to dismantle key pillars of European climate policy, weaken the independence and operating capacity of non-governmental organizations pushing for climate action, and challenge the international order established after World War Two.   

EUROPE’S NEW CLIMATE, BROUGHT TO YOU BY TRANSNATIONAL ANTI-DEMOCRATIC FORCES

Direct influence from the US into European politics and its climate implications

• International political influences played a visible role in the Polish Presidential election, with U.S. actors reportedly seeking to shape outcomes.  Arguably, without such interventions, the relatively unknown candidate Nawrocki – who is staunchly opposed to EU climate policies – would not have won.
• Germany’s elections have seen visible amplification of anti-democratic narratives on major social media platforms, with ownership and moderation decisions shaping political discourse. In the UK, political debate has also been directly influenced by narratives promoted on major social media platforms. Since the acquisition of X – backed by significant foreign investment – the platform has hosted repeated claims that ‘civil war in Europe is inevitable’.
• Detailed reports that multi-million dollar foundations are directly influencing Europe from the US. One example is the “Berlin Campaign Conference” in 2024 in Germany, when some Americans holding anti-democratic views reportedly met with German lobbyists and business representatives to promote international cooperation among mainstream cooperation movements. The event was supported by Hungary-based Danube Institute and US-based Heritage Foundation and the Leadership Institute. 
• Other German think tanks opposing climate policies have documented U.S ties, such as EIKE, which has ties to the AfD and is funded by US-based Heartland and CFACT; and Republik21, whose founder has ties to the U.S. and whose co-chair is connected to INSM, another group opposing European climate policies.
• The Heartland Institute, long known for its climate-denying efforts, also maintains ties with Germany’s AfD and has supported the establishment of a UK branch of the movement, promoted by high-profile figures associated with the far-right.

Europe’s Anti-Democracy Coalition and its MAGA Imitation Game 

• In February 2025, Spain hosted a summit under the banner “Patriots for Europe (PfE)” in Madrid. Borrowing directly from U.S. political branding, the summit adopted slogans such as “Make Europe Great Again.” Leaders including Santiago Abascal (VOX), Viktor Orbán of Hungary and Marine Le Pen of France praised America’s influence, describing the current administration as an opportunity to advance similar agendas in Europe.
• The Spanish party VOX’s head of European delegation has directly acknowledged that the Patriots are a transatlantic party that coordinates with the United States but also other extremist leaders in Argentina and Paraguay. 
• In France, despite polling showing 84% of the public supports renewable energy, politician Marion Maréchal and MP Edwige Diaz echoed US rhetoric at the UN, downplaying renewable energy and aligning with climate denial narratives. Disinformation works by distorting public perception, convincing citizens and policymakers that climate action is less popular than it truly is – a narrative reinforced by biased and counter-factual media outlets such as CNEWS.
• In Poland, a shift in rhetoric mirrors this transatlantic influence. In 2023, Law and Justice party leader, Kacynski, claimed that expert opinion on climate change was “divided.” By 2025, his stance had hardened to outright denial, asserting that, “There is no evidence that human activity causes climate change.” The party now explicitly states its intent to strengthen ties with the U.S. over the EU, while the Konfederacja party consistently amplifies U.S.-style climate denial messaging in its communications.

CONSEQUENCES FOR CLIMATE BELIEF AND POLICY?

Unfortunately, global climate opinion appears to be in recession, with recent polling across 20 countries showing a decrease in belief and perceived salience. We believe this is, in part, a direct consequence of these global communications trends. But it is not too late. The numbers still show that the vast majority of people believe in climate change and the value of climate action.  What we are witnessing is a top-down campaign, backed by powerful financial networks that artificially inflates fringe opinions rooted in misinformation through digital propaganda – shifting the Overton Window to make denialist positions appear mainstream.

This “digital shoving” of public norms is dangerous not just for climate policy, but for democracy itself. People base their views on what they believe others think. For instance, the best predictor of whether someone installs solar panels isn’t income or education, it’s whether they can see them on their neighbours’ roofs.

Social proof shapes belief, and online discourse now distorts that mirror, creating what one expert called a “funhouse mirror factory” of manipulated public opinion. 

This distortion is enabled – and arguably accelerated – by Big Tech, of which company headquarters are overwhelmingly based in the US. The activities of a handful of large social media platforms between 2019 – 2023 provide an insight into the shifting information landscape. Platforms which initially enforced basic information integrity policies ultimately reinstated problematic figures, paid damages, and relaxed what few information integrity policies existed. This is likely at least in part as a response to sustained pressure campaigns from vested interests – ushering in an era where Big Tech doesn’t just host debate, it engineers it, amplifying anti-democratic narratives through coordinated disinformation stepping into a techno feudalism era,

WHAT NOW?

It should not be controversial to state that we shouldn’t appease autocrats. It should be just as uncontroversial to suggest that they not be allowed to rebuild political power via the most powerful communications tool ever created in human existence: the Internet. Regulation of these communications tools in this environment in order to protect democracy and the health of the people on the planet is going to be tough, but it is the only option for democracy and climate policy. 

When it comes to covering extreme movements, just as giving air time to climate deniers made the public believe there was a 50/50 split among scientists, media insistence on giving undue attention to extremist figures further amplifies, and most importantly, normalizes their hateful messaging. We need to cover fringe movements as if they are at the fringe. That is, not just critically, but more sparsely, and not like it’s widely popular or even acceptable among the general public. 

And always remember: climate policy is popular, denial is not. That is why they use hate to recruit to the anti-climate movement. Don’t fall for it! 

ROAD TO BELEM

FALA and CAAD have found that climate misinformation in the Portuguese language spread 267% more from July to August this year. Keywords related to the global conference were spread 14,000 times alongside words like “disaster,” “joke,” “catastrophe,” and “failure”.

This is a phenomenon we commonly see leading up to a COP. With the importance of COP30, disinformers will target this conference hard. We must be prepared. Read more about it at the latest two Oii newsletters.

IN OTHER NEWS

• Marketing a climate crisis. In a year where fossil fuel companies have doubled down on their planet wrecking products, the world’s leading ad agencies have continued laundering the industry’s image. Clean Creatives’ 2025 F-List reveals 1217 fossil fuel contracts held by 709 advertising and PR agencies in 2024 and 2025. See the agency that works for you on the list? Time for ‘the chat’.
• Wikipedia: an antidote against disinformation? As the quality of online information is increasingly at stake, Wikimedia hopes to stand directly opposed to climate disinformation. Check out the write up from the information integrity on climate change event at Wikimania 2025.
• AI chatbots used to lobby councils in Canada. Local policymakers have enough on their plates deciphering grassroots from astroturf without having to run every email from a constituent through a chatbot checker. But this is, unfortunately, inevitable. Industries that are wrong, on purpose, for money, have no problem being dishonest with the latest tech.
• Cradle to grave, fossil fuels kill. A new report from the Global Climate & Health Alliance synthesises the latest medical health science to reveal the hidden health toll of fossil fuels at every stage of production. Hidden indeed. We wonder how much the fossil fuel industry already knew of this, just as with the decades of deceit regarding environmental damage.
• A win for the Kick Big Polluters Out coalition. After years of sustained campaigning, this year’s COP will require non-government participants to disclose who is funding their participation at the summit and publicly confirm objectives in line with Kyoto, Paris and the UNFCCC.
• Online abuse can lead to offline harm, including death. COP30 will be held in the continent where the most killings of land defenders takes place year-after-year. In a “first of a kind” survey, Global Witness have found a link between online abuse and offline harm for land defenders worldwide. This is important because online platforms usually only focus on ‘immediate harms’ when moderating their products, which ultimately ignores many of these real harms. 

Got a lead that isn’t getting the scrutiny it deserves? Or a hunch that something doesn’t quite add up? Send it our way at [email protected]