COP, LOOK, LISTEN ISSUE 6 | 26 NOV 24
Welcome back to the final edition of COP, Look, Listen 2024. COP29 has limped to a close after nearing collapse. The conference’s outcomes on mitigation and adaptation have been described as “abysmally poor” and “insulting”, with the final outcome making no explicit reference to the ‘polluter pays principle’, phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, or cutting investment flows to fossil fuels”.
For CAAD, the outcome is as unsurprising as it is disappointing. Like its recent predecessors, this COP has been egregiously oil-soaked, with climate misinformation casting a cloud of confusion over negotiations. After rushing through a problematic agreement on carbon markets at the beginning of proceedings, COP observers have called the Azerbaijani COP29 Presidency of Mukhtar Babayev “one of the worst in recent memory”, highlighting his “ineptitude in brokering [a final] agreement at this consequential climate finance COP”.
Nevertheless, attention – and our faith in “alive and necessary” multilateral proceedings – must now turn to next year’s host. Brazil is experiencing severe climate impacts but is poised to lead on climate action and<> on countering disinformation. However, it is also the largest fossil fuel producer in Latin America, and there, disinformation is bound up with issues of national identity and sovereignty.
Looking ahead to COP30, here is what we’re seeing in these crucial intersections.
FINDINGS OF THE DAY
Brazil takes the lead – but it’s complicated
Last Thursday, Brazil unveiled the Global Initiative for Information Integrity on Climate Change – a landmark partnership with the UN and UNESCO, and the first government-led multilateral effort to tackle climate disinformation. It’s a significant step forward, addressing a glaring gap in the fight against harmful narratives that delay climate action. Momentum is growing, with countries such as Chile, Morocco, and Denmark backing the initiative, signalling that the global community is waking up to the dangers of unchecked disinformation.
Figure 1: A post on X criticising Norway’s extractive activities in the Amazon. Social media in Brazil is ablaze with posts like this, some far more incendiary (content warning: violence against animals). Translation of post: Norway, the largest donor to the Amazon Fund and sponsor of the NGO, intends to increase oil and gas exploration by 2050. The country mines in the Amazon and explores oil, including in the Arctic. Along with Switzerland, it has the highest HDI [Human Development Index score] in the world.
But Brazilian leadership on this front is far from straightforward. In Brazil, disinformation is more than a climate issue – it’s wrapped in a complex tangle of national identity and sovereignty. Narratives about foreign NGOs and shadowy elites conspiring to “steal” the Amazon are deeply entrenched, fanned by decades-old military-era projects and modern political polarisation. Social media in Brazil is ablaze with these claims, turning the Amazon into a battleground not just for environmental policy, but for cultural pride too.
Figure 2: Mentions of the “The Amazon” alongside other keywords like “NGOs”, “Norway”, “France”, “foreigners”, “Europeans”, “Biden” and “Macron” on X and online media in Portuguese language since September 2023.
Brazil’s State of Climate Disinformation
Nevertheless, Portuguese-language climate disinformation often recycles narratives and content from English-language sources. For instance, global minority fake experts like Piers Corbyn are frequently invoked to bolster denial narratives.
Another issue to be aware of is the amount of extreme weather disinformation that takes place in Brazil. Our monitoring of climate misinformation in Brazil since May 2023 shows that disinformers exploit these extreme weather events in particular, creating activity and engagement spikes. Popular narratives in Brazil around extreme weather events are like those we see in other places, with accusations of arson or exaggeration of the crisis, sometimes connected to wider conspiracies about weather manipulation.
Add to all this, the ongoing internal debate over expanding oil extraction in the Amazon – championed by state oil giant and chief greenwasher Petrobras – and the challenge of balancing progress with protection becomes all the more precarious.
Regarding COP29 itself, the summit took a relative backseat this year in Brazil. The G20, hosted in Brazil, according to our monitoring of X and online media, received 10 times as many mentions as COP29. Portuguese language posts relating Argentina President Milei to US President elect Trump were just as common as those about COP29. It’s not a surprise then that one of the most popular X posts in Portuguese during COP29 was a re-share of a very popular English-language post accusing summit delegates of hypocrisy for not eating vegan at the summit.
Figure 2, from X.com. Post translation: “Climate phenomena are now under scrutiny, precisely because climate fraud is on the 2030 Agenda. Any natural consequence can be attributed to the efforts of a group that is remodeling society. Nothing is natural. EVERYTHING is manipulated or exacerbated to bring CHAOS, in order to justify CONTROL over human beings.”
An uncertain road ahead
As COP30 approaches, Brazil’s leadership will likely reflect its dual identities: an advocate for the Amazon and a nation wrestling with its own dependence on fossil fuels. The Global Initiative for Information Integrity offers a hopeful foundation to address the growing threat of climate disinformation, and an opportunity to hold digital platforms accountable and promote democratic oversight of the information ecosystem.
Thais Lazzeri, founder of FALA and creator of Mentira Tem Preço (Lies Have a Price), told us “The supply chain of lies works against climate action. Now, we must move toward concrete steps for accountability and transparency as we approach COP30. It is crucial for Brazil to lead by example this year leading up to the Belém conference, establishing institutional conditions to ensure the fight against climate disinformation within the country and inspiring other nations to join the initiative.”
As for CAAD, you can see our existing policy asks here. With the help of our partners, we will increase our scrutiny of Brazil’s climate misinformation leading into and during COP30. Sign up to our data monitor to keep up with the latest monitoring and research from our 70+ strong coalition.
GREENWASHING TRACKER – DIPLOMATIC EDITION
CAAD capture ads from the carbon bads
Members of CAAD organisations took photos of displays and adverts during multilateral negotiations this month, from the G20 summit in Belém to COP29 in Baku. We hold these types of photos until the last issue of COP, Look, Listen – when everyone is home safely from authoritarian countries with abysmal political and civil rights records. Authoritarian governments are usually tightly allied with fossil fuel corporate interests, and taken together, COPs 27 – 29 constitute a vivid case in point.
We hope NGO observers at COP30 might be safer, though we know that last year Brazil hosted the highest number of attacks on human rights defenders challenging corporate harm of any country in the world.
Big Oil has the world over a barrel…
…and the OPEC Pavilion in Baku flaunted it. Their display featured a timeline boasting their long-standing greasy presence at COPs, and a banner highlighting their contributions to “[emissions] mitigation”. Imagine our gratitude.
Figure 3: Photos of OPEC’s pavilion in Baku.
Fossil gas: international concern trolls
From Belém to Baku, fossil gas companies are concerned about our children…
Figure 4. Fossil gas advert from Shell at G20 summit, Belém. It’s common to see such advertisements inside and around major diplomatic events, lest world leaders forget the fossil fuel industry.
… and a sustainable future. Who knew?
Figure 5. Fossil gas adverts at COP29 in Baku.
CCUS: Cartoon cuteness and unabashed sneakiness
Look how adorable it can be to allow fossil emissions to continue unabated! Look how a cartoon can captivate by conflating carbon capture and underground storage (CCUS), which captures CO2 from a facility before it enters the atmosphere, with carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which after CO2 is released into the atmosphere can simply remove it–with a butterfly net!
Figure 6. Taiwanese Power Company’s kawaii in Baku.
And that’s a wrap! Thanks for joining us, untangling the knottiest of climate disinformation during COP29. Just so you know, there is one issue of COP, Look, Listen we were unable to publish during the summit due to security reasons. We plan to release this as a CAAD Data Monitor in December, so if you are not signed up for our round-the-year dispatch on climate disinformation trends, you can do that right here.
This newsletter will now go dormant until we arrive in your inbox this time next year in Belém. You can always keep in touch with us at [email protected], as well as on X, LinkedIn and now on Bluesky!
